market survival

It is not easy situation for bulls when we talk about stock market. Let’s leave behind the whole political situation with debt and just look at charts. 4 hour S&P500 chart shows that bears are currently stronger. There is a pressure down:

4 hour sp500

Of course pullback is still in the game, because price can find support at the ichimoku cloud: (more…)

The next week may be very interesting for traders. Government shutdown topic is back again and situation in the markets may be not clear (so possible strong moves in both directions). When we check S&P500 on monthly chart we can see that area around 1690 points is a strong resistance. It looks like September will be a third month in a row, when price fail to close higher than 1690. On top of that add the whole government shutdown. As I said – it may be nervous. On the other hand, it is possible that after some good news price will close above that resistance.

monthly sp500 chart

Basically that is the whole news for now. I expect some good volatility on lower time frames and I will try to catch some good moves on both e-mini SP500 and eur/usd. I will write another post with trade examples.

Today was a great day on eurusd, but not so obvious at first. Let’s look at bigger picture. SP500 cut Italy’s rating and eurusd tanked – that was yesterday. Add to this fact that eurusd is in a downtrend so it is hard to take a long position. In a long term yes but when you are daytrading then you can take a risk. Today was a good day for that because on lower time frames we saw an uptrend and some corrections down.

In the morning there was a great setup – move up, correction to 61.8% retracement and 55 simple moving average and then move up to the extension line. Pure and simple.

eurusd – 1st good trade opportunity

(more…)

Friday was very interesting – much better Non-Farm Payrolls numbers and strong moves up and down on SPX. In the end bulls took control. Situation is not clear, SPX is below resistance line:

daily spx

but also is still above important support line which you can see on monthly chart. (more…)

Now it is time for the third quarter. What it will bring?

Lets check SPX. On daily chart it does not look so good. On Ichomoku chart we can see price below cloud. Also price broke a rising trend line few days back. It does not look so great:

daily spx

On the other hand, there is a hope for bulls. Check monthly chart of SPX. We can see clearly that recently SPX broke through important resistance and it is still hanging above that level: (more…)

We saw some strong falls on stocks. I mentioned last time that we were in the decision point and bulls did not find strength to bounce up. For now the short term averages are pointing down and we can see that bears took over control. What next? I personally do not take any long positions until there will be a sign that buyers are back. What sign? Move back above 1620 and positive averages.

daily SPX, renko 5 pts.

What is Fibonacci retracement and how to use it? Read this article and learn how to trade with retracement lines. First, if you are not sure what Fibonacci number and ratio is, check this short article, where you can get some answers.

Article’s menu:

Price behavior
How to draw retracement levels? It is easy like ABC
Should price touch the retracement levels?
What retracements levels should I use?
I have my retracements, when should I open trade?
Opening the trade: option 1
Opening the trade: option 2
Opening the trade: option 3
Where to put stops?
Conclusion

Price behavior

Before we learn more about Fibonacci retracements, let’s talk about price behavior for a minute. Price can be trending up, down or move sideways. Of course we are looking for investing opportunities in an up and downtrend, trying to avoid investing where there is no clear direction.

Let’s assume, that we have identified an uptrend. Does price go up all the time? No, price makes higher highs and higher lows. That is a sign for us that we have an uptrend. It may looks similar to example below:

uptrend, higher highs example

Same is with downtrend. Price makes lower highs and lower lows. Again, look at chart below and you should understand it right away: (more…)

I am very happy to announce my guide to trading with Fibonacci. If you ever wanted to know how to use Fibonacci retracement or how to exit a trade with Fibonacci extension then this guide is for you.

You can find it here:

The advanced guide to Fibonacci trading

It’s a long read because the guide has over 20000 words, but I think this knowledge will help you in your trading. You will find descriptions of popular tools based on Fibonacci numbers such as retracement, extension and expansion lines. But I wanted to show you more. So there is a whole chapter about money management, correct way of defining a trend and much more… The great thing about Fibonacci is that you can use it on every kind of market – it may be Forex, stocks or commodities. Hope my guide will help you to trade better – have a nice read :).

From now on I will write more about trading with renko. Why? Because I think it is very good technique to catch trends in stock markets. I’m gonna write more about that in next posts. For now let’s review some charts and see what is going on.

First $SPX. We have a correction and SPX is testing supports at trend line. It may be a decision point, where we will be able to check how strong bulls are. Maybe there will be a strong bounce from here – this would be a good sign about the strength of the trend. In the other case we will be looking at potential move down. (more…)

And it is moving fast. That is very rare to see so drastic moves. All media are taking about gold. Many people were thinking that this was a small correction, but now there is no doubt that it’s something bigger. After bad news from China sentiment has changed on all precious metals and especially on gold. Just look at daily chart of gold. I put Fibonacci retracement lines to mark potential support levels. I do not want to guess how far gold can fall. I think that eventually it will find some support at one of Fibo lines. The time will tell.

(more…)